2023 was really a good year for Investors. All asset classes Equity (21%), Bonds (9%) and even Gold (15%) delivered good returns. But what about 2024, Here are some of the trends worth watching. If we can capitalize on the trend then it will bring profit for you. Its tendency of humans to try predicting future. Even knowing that its beyond our control. We know that future is not knowable. Here in this Blog We also with our studies, data and limited knowledge trying guage trends of Future. Following are few trends to watch for 2024. • Volatile Equity Market We think Equity markets will be volatile in 2024.Difficult year for traders and speculators as market trying to discount future corporate earnings, US recession, elections results in India and US and Geo political issues. • Rupee set to appreciate We are very early in this trend. May be after June-July this trend will be much clear . We believe that US is likely to get in recession or soft landing around May or June 24. After that last 15 years (Since 2008) trend of Rupee (₹) depreciation could reverse for variety of reasons. It means $ could depreciate and ₹ will appreciate. This is likely to be a trend for next 8 to 10 years. Yes speculators can short $ around US recession to get good gains but for us there are many implications . Inflation and Interest Rates to remain Heigh. In India and around the world Inflation and interest rates will remain High for long. In US, Fed will start to cut rates in 2024 but 5 will not become 0 . May be It will remain between 2 to 4 (In US). As our Guru Howard Marks explains in his Memos that We are going through monumental shift for interest rates (Since 1980 ) . So, it’s very clear that interest rates and inflation likely to remain higher for longer. • Don’t underestimate Gold and Fixed Income. Add fixed income and gold to your portfolio to reduce volatility and get better returns. After many years of lower single digit returns ,both Asset classes Bonds and Gold likely to give good double digit returns to investors in next few years We have good allocation to these asset classes for our clients. • Be ready for Positive Or Negative surprises on Political and Election Front. 2024 is election year. Most of the major economies are going for elections in coming year. World is moving from middle to extreme right. We need to get ready for both positive as well as Negative surprises. These are some thoughts on trends for next year or so . I would like to know your views and opinions as well. Wishing you Happy and Prosperous New Year 2024 in advance. Blog by Santosh G Akerkar for Investor awareness and Educational Purpose.
Crystal Ball Gazing Trends to Watch For 2024.
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